Gas Market Report, Q4-2022

This year’s winter gas season opens with extreme natural gas price levels and volatility, caused by unprecedented uncertainty of supply as Russia steeply curtails its pipeline deliveries to Europe. The result is considerable market tension in alternative sources of supply. Security of supply has become a top priority in Europe and other importing regions as a total cut-off in Russian flows to Europe cannot be ruled out, creating further tensions and demand destruction for all competing LNG importers.

The gas crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has caused a series of market adjustments. European buyers have strongly increased their LNG procurement, resulting in market tightening and demand destruction in various importing regions. This has also had a visible impact on LNG contracting behaviours, with a return to more traditional features such as fixed-destination and longer-duration contracts. The European Union, whose member states are directly exposed to the threat of further supply cuts, has adopted a number of measures to enhance security of supply and market resilience ahead of the coming winter.

This quarterly report includes the IEA’s annual Global Gas Security Review and an analysis of short-term gas market evolution to 2023.