COP28: Tracking the Energy Outcomes

COP28 marked the first time that nearly 200 countries agreed on the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems – with action accelerating in this critical decade to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, in keeping with the science.

Due to the rapid growth of clean energy, peaks in demand for oil, natural gas and coal are now visible by 2030 under today’s policy settings. Yet on a pathway to net zero by 2050, fossil fuel demand would need to decline by more than a quarter from 2022 levels by the end of the decade, enabled by rapid growth in clean energy – much faster than is currently projected under today’s policy settings.

Our recent special report, The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions, lays out near-term actions the sector can take to help the world achieve its climate ambitions.

The transition away from fossil fuels must be just, orderly and equitable, as stipulated by the COP28 agreement. There are many metrics that can be used to assess whether transitions are just, orderly and equitable. Though none capture the entire picture, we provide here a few important data points worth monitoring.

Currently, clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies is lacklustre outside of China, indicating that these economies are missing out on clean energy opportunities. Clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies including China needs to triple from 2022 levels by 2030 on a pathway to net zero by 2050.

The IEA’s Clean Energy Transitions Programme focuses on accelerating clean energy transitions in major emerging economies. More details on what is needed from the private sector can be found in the report Scaling Up Private Finance for Clean Energy in Emerging and Developing Economies developed with the International Finance Corporation. The report Reducing the Cost of Capital includes recommendations for improving access to financing in emerging economies.

People around the world will also need access to reliable and affordable energy supplies as the transition away from fossil fuels advances. To achieve this, it is important to sequence the scaling up of investment in clean energy and the decline in investment in fossil fuel supplies in order to avoid damaging price spikes or stranded assets. Even in a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, some investment in existing oil and gas infrastructure remains necessary.

Learn more in our new special report, Strategies for Affordable and Fair Clean Energy Transitions, and in our World Energy Investment 2024 report, which looks at the energy investment landscape.

Additionally, in the IEA’s pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, the world achieves universal energy access by 2030, in line with UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). More than a billion people gained access to electricity between 2010 and 2021. However, the pace of improvements has slowed in recent years – and in 2022, access declined slightly.

The world also remains off track to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030. More than 2 billion people still using polluting fuels and technologies for cooking, with serious negative consequences for health, economic development, gender equity and the climate.

Explore the latest progress report on SDG 7, and learn more about delivering universal clean cooking access while meeting net zero targets in A Vision for Clean Cooking Access for All. The IEA and its partners recently convened the first Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa, which mobilised substantial financing and support to make 2024 a turning point on this issue.

It is crucial to maximise the number of high-quality jobs linked to the clean energy economy. Clean energy employment now makes up over half of all energy jobs, having overtaken the number of roles tied to fossil fuels in 2021. On a pathway to net zero by 2050, the global energy sector employs 25% more workers in 2030 than it does currently – though jobs may not always be in the same location or require the same skills. This makes it essential to substantially expand support for job training and capacity building in order to ensure that energy transitions benefit as many people as possible.

The latest data on energy sector employment can be found in our World Energy Employment 2023 report. For an online repository of best practice case studies on people-centred and inclusive clean energy programmes and policies, visit our recently-launched Global Observatory on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions.

The COP28 agreement notes that the full range of zero- and low-emissions technologies is needed to reach net zero emissions by mid-century – including renewables; nuclear; abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), particularly in sectors where emissions are hard to abate; and low-emissions hydrogen.

Low-emissions hydrogen and CCUS capacity (including for direct air capture) need to rise strongly in the IEA's pathway to net zero by 2050. Nuclear power is a more mature technology, though capacity also needs to increase strongly by 2030 to reach net zero emissions by mid-century.

Explore the IEA’s handbook on building commercial markets for CCUS and find current projects in our CCUS database. The latest analysis on hydrogen can be found in the annual Global Hydrogen Review, while a complementary database tracks active projects and infrastructure development. And read our 2022 report Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions, which explores the role of nuclear power in meeting global energy and climate goals.

The COP28 agreement calls for substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally and emphasises the need to cut methane emissions this decade in particular. According to IEA analysis, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations need to decline by 75% from 2022 levels by 2030 on a pathway to limiting warming to 1.5 °C.

The production and use of fossil fuels resulted in close to 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2023, equivalent to around 3.4 billion tonnes of CO2. That is near the record high set in 2019. However, there are signs of progress, with transparency on emissions improving and policy action gaining momentum.

Learn more in our Global Methane Tracker 2024 report, and explore key strategies to cut methane emissions from oil and gas operations. We’ve also published a regulatory roadmap and toolkit to reduce methane leaks in the oil and gas sector. This September, the IEA and the COP29 Presidency will co-host a signature event on tackling methane emissions in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Governments agreed at COP28 to accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport, including through the development of infrastructure and the rapid deployment of zero- and low-emissions vehicles.

While there are multiple technical solutions to reduce emissions from road transport, electrification is a key one. Demand for electric cars reached a new record in 2023, accounting for nearly one in five new cars sold globally. Meanwhile, nearly one in ten two- and three-wheelers globally is now electric.

If the rate of growth in electric cars is sustained, it would be more than enough to align with the IEA’s net zero pathway – though 2023 demand was notably concentrated in a handful of major markets and must be spread more broadly around the world.

Find out more in the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2024.

The COP28 agreement calls for phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions as soon as possible.

At the height of the global energy crisis in 2022, fossil fuel subsidies soared. Those for natural gas and electricity consumption more than doubled compared with 2021, while oil subsidies rose by around 85%. The total value of subsidies declined in 2023 as some government provisions expired, while many others are tied directly to energy prices, which pulled back from record highs in many parts of the world.

Explore the IEA’s Fossil Fuel Subsidies Database for more information on consumption subsidies in select countries through 2022.