Universal access to affordable electricity, achieved by 2030 in the SAS, requires bringing connections to 90 million people a year, triple the rate of recent years. At present, 600 million people, or 43% of the total population, lack access to electricity, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries such as Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda are on track for full access by 2030, offering success stories other countries can follow. Our detailed analysis shows that extending national grids is the least costly and most prudent option for almost 45% of those gaining access to 2030. In rural areas, where over 80% of the electricity-deprived live, mini-grids and stand-alone systems, mostly solar based, are the most viable solutions. 

Achieving universal access to clean cooking fuels and technologies by 2030 requires shifting 130 million people away from dirty cooking fuels each year. Today, 970 million Africans lack access to clean cooking. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is the leading solution in urban areas, but recent price spikes are making it unaffordable for 30 million people across Africa, pushing many to revert to traditional use of biomass. Countries are re-evaluating clean fuel subsidy schemes and exploring alternatives such as improved biomass cook stoves, electric cooking and biodigesters. The improvement rates needed for universal clean cooking access by 2030 are unprecedented, but the benefits are huge: reducing premature deaths by over 500 000 a year by 2030, drastically cutting time spent gathering fuel and cooking, and allowing millions of women to pursue education, employment and civic involvement.

The goal of universal access to modern energy calls for investment of USD 25 billion per year. This is around 1% of global energy investment today, and similar to the cost of building just one large liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. Stimulating more investment requires international support aided by stronger national institutions on the ground laying out clear access strategies – only around 25 African countries have them today.

Electricity is the backbone of Africa’s new energy systems, powered increasingly by renewables. Africa is home to 60% of the best solar resources globally, yet only 1% of installed solar PV capacity. Solar PV – already the cheapest source of power in many parts of Africa – outcompetes all sources continent-wide by 2030. Renewables, including solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal account for over 80% of new power generation capacity to 2030 in the SAS. Once coal-fired power plants currently under construction are completed, Africa builds no new ones, underpinned mainly by China’s announcement to end support for coal plants abroad. If the investment initially intended for these discontinued coal plants were redirected to solar PV, it could cover half of the cost of all Africa’s solar PV capacity additions to 2025 in the SAS. 

Flexibility is key to integrating more variable renewables, with grid interconnections, hydropower and natural gas plants playing notable roles. Regional power pools contribute to improving reliability of supply – a major problem in Africa. Expanding and modernising Africa’s electricity infrastructure requires a radical improvement in the financial health of public utilities, which have been battered by recent economic crises and longstanding under-pricing of electricity. Regulatory reforms are a priority, particularly cost-of-service electricity pricing reforms, which are in place or under discussion in 24 African countries to date.

Africa’s industrialisation relies in part on expanding natural gas use. Natural gas demand in Africa increases in the SAS, but it maintains the same share of modern energy use as today, with electricity generation from renewables outcompeting it in most cases. More than 5 000 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas resources have been discovered to date in Africa which have not yet been approved for development. These resources could provide an additional 90 bcm of gas a year by 2030, which may well be vital for the fertiliser, steel and cement industries and water desalination. Cumulative CO₂ emissions from the use of these gas resources over the next 30 years would be around 10 gigatonnes. If these emissions were added to Africa’s cumulative total today, they would bring its share of global emissions to a mere 3.5%.

Production of oil and gas remains important to African economic and social development, but the focus shifts to meeting domestic demand. Global efforts to accelerate the clean energy transition in the SAS risks dwindling export revenues for Africa’s oil and gas. Between now and 2030, Africa’s domestic demand for both oil and gas accounts for around two-thirds of the continent’s production. This puts greater emphasis on developing well-functioning infrastructure within Africa, such as storage and distribution infrastructure, to meet domestic demand for transport fuels and LPG. In parallel, African countries focus on strengthening energy efficiency policies, and expanding renewables and other clean energy technologies.

Near-term market opportunities must not distract from declining oil and gas export revenues in the future. New projects benefit from speed to market, minimising project costs and delays, and reducing methane emissions. Current price surges are providing a short-term boon to African producers, with new deals signed to deliver Algerian gas to Europe, along with renewed momentum to develop and expand LNG terminals in Congo, Mauritania and Senegal. With the European Union aiming to halt Russian gas imports towards 2030, Africa in principle could supply an extra 30 bcm in 2030. Reducing flaring and venting could quickly make at least 10 bcm of African gas available for export without the development of new supply and transport infrastructure. New long lead time gas projects risk failing to recover their upfront costs if the world is successful in bringing down gas demand in line with reaching net zero emissions by mid-century.

Africa has huge potential to produce hydrogen using its rich renewable resources. A number of low-carbon hydrogen projects are underway or under discussion in Egypt, Mauritania, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa. These are focused primarily on using renewables-based power to produce ammonia for fertiliser, which would strengthen Africa’s food security. Global declines in the cost of hydrogen production could allow Africa to deliver renewables-produced hydrogen to Northern Europe at internationally competitive price points by 2030. With further cost declines, Africa has the potential to produce 5 000 megatonnes of hydrogen per year at less than USD 2 per kilogramme—equivalent to global total energy supply today.

Africa will remain a minor contributor to global emissions, yet it needs to do far more to adapt to climate risks than the rest of the world. By 2050, Africa accounts for no more than 4% of cumulative global energy-related CO₂ emissions, regardless of the scenario. With today’s policies, the global average temperature rise is likely to hit 2 °C around 2050, but this would probably result in a median temperature rise of 2.7 °C in North Africa. That would reduce African GDP by around 8% in 2050 relative to a baseline without any climate impacts. Losses in some regions such as East Africa would reach around 15%.

Urgent action to adapt to climate change would reduce the severity of these economic effects but require much more investment. Funding for climate adaptation could reach USD 30-50 billion per year by 2030 – a huge increase on the USD 7.8 billion that was provided by advanced economies for adaptation projects in 2019. Some of this will be needed to make Africa’s energy systems more resilient against climate risks: three-fifths of Africa’s thermal power plants are at high or very high risk of being disrupted by water stress and one-sixth of Africa’s LNG capacity is vulnerable to coastal flooding.

Achieving Africa’s energy and climate goals means more than doubling energy investment this decade. This would take it over USD 190 billion each year from 2026 to 2030, with two-thirds going to clean energy. The share of energy investment in Africa’s GDP rises to 6.1% in the 2026-30 period, slightly above the average for emerging market and developing economies. But Africa’s energy investment in that period is still only around 5% of the global total in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. 

Multilateral development banks must make increasing financial flows to Africa an absolute priority. To mobilise the amount of investment envisioned in the SAS, they will need to increase concessional finance to Africa and use it more strategically to better leverage private capital. This includes domestic financial markets, which need to more than double in size by the second-half of this decade. New capital sources, such as climate finance and carbon credits, can bring more international financial flows to bear. However, cross-cutting investment risks such as high debt burdens remain a challenge.

Africa’s energy future requires stronger efforts on the ground that are backed by global support. The COP27 Climate Change Conference in Egypt in late 2022 provides a crucial platform for African leaders to work globally to identify ways to drive these changes. This decade is critical, not only for global climate action, but also for the foundational investments that will allow Africa – home to the world’s youngest population – to flourish in the decades to come.