Cite report
IEA, IRENA & UN Climate Change High-Level Champions (2023), Breakthrough Agenda Report 2023, IEA, Paris /reports/breakthrough-agenda-report-2023, Licence: CC BY 4.0
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State of transition
The power sector is not yet on track for net zero by mid-century, although the deployment and manufacture of key technologies have accelerated considerably in recent years. If current rates of growth in wind and solar generation continue, they are set to achieve more than half of what is required by 2030 to get on track for a net zero scenario.
- Total power sector emissions have increased from 13.4 Gt CO2 in 2015 to 14.8 Gt CO2 in 2022. Emissions need to more than halve by 2030, to be in line with net zero scenarios.
- The carbon intensity of electricity is currently at around 458 g CO2/kWh, and should achieve 99 g CO2/kWh to align with international climate goals.
- Renewable energy is less costly than fossil fuel-based electricity in a growing number of countries and makes up more than 50% of production in around 30% of countries. The average levelised cost of electricity for new projects has fallen by 89% for solar PV and 69% for onshore wind since 2010.
- The costs of storage have fallen by nearly 80% since 2015, although there are significant differences between regions.
- Recent supply chain disruptions have temporarily impacted cost reductions, and further reductions will probably be more modest in the coming year.
- Renewable share of new capacity additions has increased from 37% in 2010 to 83% in 2022.
- If solar and wind continue to expand at their current rate – doubling every 3.5 years – they will reach around 8 TW annual installed capacity by 2030. Net zero scenarios estimate that a total 11 TW renewable energy capacity is needed by 2030.
- Battery storage also needs to scale up to about 360 GW by 2030, from 25 GW in 2022.
Progress summary
Area | What progress has been made? | What more needs to be done? | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|
P2. Finance and investment |
A wave of new public and private commitments, including JETPs. The development of innovative financial instruments improving access to finance. Further growth in matchmaking platforms to improve access to assistance. |
Continue to increase the scale of public and private investments. Increase public commitments, channelled through direct investments, blended finance, and other instruments such as grants and subsidies to help reduce the cost of capital in developing countries. Improve collaboration around successful de-risking mechanisms, particularly among MDBs and other lenders. |
|
P3. Social engagement |
Several support programmes announced focused on the social aspects of the transition. Improvements in capacity building for government officials and local industries. |
Develop strategies to strengthen local supply chains, using local expertise and international best practice. Share learning among countries and support the creation of dedicated national social task forces. |
|
P4. Research and innovation |
Increase in the participation in key public and private sector initiatives. Countries have set out joint innovation priorities and plan for demonstration projects in all regions. Strengthened collaboration and knowledge exchange among the initiatives working in this area. |
Better co-ordinate efforts to research, develop and demonstrate technologies, particularly across emerging markets. Prioritise R&D investments in key enabling technologies, such as storage, distributed energy resources and system operation. Assess prospects for the refurbishment and repurposing of existing assets such as hydropower units and thermal power plants. |
|
P5. Infrastructure |
Countries have set clear priorities and roadmaps for regional grid initiatives. Advanced bilateral and regional initiatives to implement or improve cross-border power exchange. Improved knowledge exchange between regulators and other relevant actors. |
Collectively identify mechanisms to mitigate security of supply risks for cross-border infrastructure. Explore means of reducing transaction costs and fast-tracking permitting. Scale up manufacturing capacity to reduce current market lead time and avoid shortfalls of key materials. |
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P6. Demand management |
Increased membership of efficiency and energy standards initiatives. A modest increase in in-country assistance and technical capacity building. |
Countries to collectively agree to higher minimum energy performance standards for high energy-consuming appliances. Improved technical and financial assistance to facilitate the application of measures. |
Power recommendations
- Governments, working with key institutions, and funds, should ensure that international support is available at better terms, including grants at early investment stages. That includes creating de-risking mechanisms, tailored to the country’s respective contexts, helping to mobilise private sector investments. Overall provision of resources should be increased, particularly towards technologies that have not achieved commercial maturity.
- Governments and MDBs should work together to more strongly align development funding with targeted support for local jobs, skills and investment, for the repurposing of fossil fuel assets, economic diversification, and for environmental restoration, in fossil fuel dependent regions and communities. Civil society, governments and industry should contribute to creating international centres of expertise on the just transition, within existing institutions.
- Governments should work through relevant initiatives to accelerate the identification of suitable demonstration projects, resource them appropriately, and ensure high-quality knowledge-sharing structures are put in place. To facilitate knowledge sharing among a wider set of countries and stakeholders, close collaboration with regional research and innovation networks will be required.
- Governments should work together to reassess the opportunities for cross-border and regional power interconnection and smart grids to support the transition to clean power systems, including opportunities that have been previously considered but not taken forward, given the improving technology, falling costs, and increasing need for system flexibility. Countries and investors should support international efforts to identify top regional priorities for interconnection, and to replicate successful approaches to technical agreements.
- Countries, in consultation with industry, should collectively agree to higher minimum energy performance standards for high energy-consuming appliances, supported by awareness campaigns and incentives, such as energy efficiency retrofit programmes. Improved technical assistance should facilitate the implementation of effective standards in developing countries.